This Is Going To Be Iraq

Iraq's poll results are trickling in. So far, Sistani's fundamentalist Islamic list, headed by the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (which is already demanding the prime ministership), is leading with well over 50% of the vote. The Kurdish list is next with around 25%, and Allawi's secular Shiite list and the Sunnis are sharing the bottom of the heap.

This, of course, is no surprise. Muslims live their religion like few in the West really understand. Even I could see that, once Saddam's enforced secularism was removed, most Iraqi Muslims would rally behind their religious leaders rather than another secular party - especially one run by a former Baathist and CIA informant like Allawi. So far, the only result of this election has been to cement Shiite fundamentalist rule.

I'm sure it's only a matter of time before leading Iraqi Shiite clerics start denouncing America as the Great Satan, as they did from exile in Iran - I suspect they've refrained so far only because the US military is suppressing the Sunni insurgency for them. The votes haven't even been counted yet, and they're already vowing to replace current secular civil law with Islamic religious law as practiced by Iran and the Taliban.

Vice President Cheney, on Fox News Sunday, cautioned against jumping to conclusions about what kind of document Iraq's Transitional National Assembly will write. He indicated the United States plans a hands-off approach. "We need to step back a bit now," Cheney said. "The bottom line for everybody to remember here is, this is not going to be, you know, an Iraqi version of America. This is going to be Iraqi."

And..? What will Iraq be, Mr. Cheney? I have a huge problem with the Bush administration's predilection to upsetting the apple cart, then turning into cheerleaders rather than players. It may or may not have been necessary to stir up the Middle East (though it could have been done without sacrificing US credibility), but to just stand back and see how it all turns out is irresponsible, dangerous, and does not serve this country well.

None of what's happened so far was unpredictable, yet it went unaddressed. While the exact sequence of events wasn't clear, a trend towards an Islamic fundamentalist theocracy in Iraq was a given. Before this whole thing started, the administration should have asked themselves, is another US hating Islamic theocracy in the Middle East worth fighting for? Is it worth the blood and treasure we're spending?

Here's another given, on its current course Iraq will eventually become another oil-igarchy with a government funded solely by oil revenues and dominated by Islamic clerics and their minions. If the new government doesn't need the Iraqi people to generate revenue, the people become superfluous. Why would the government spend money educating Iraqis when all the revenue necessary is generated by oil rather than taxation? In that situation, it's much easier to just subsidize their basic needs and let the madrassas channel their frustrations outward, just as every other Middle Eastern oil producing nation does.

This is going to be Iraq, Mr. Cheney.